I’ve resisted the temptation to write about this, but I need to get something out. None of the push-back on the lab-leak theory is acknowledging how unusual it is for a new virus to appear in the only city in China with a BSL4 lab. Of all the large cities in China – all with wet markets I assume – … Read More
Will 2020 see the start of a pandemic? A Bayesian approach
Will we see the start of a pandemic in 2020 from a new virus that will go on to kill tens of millions of people in the next few years? This is the question we’re all asking (more or less explicitly) given the appearance of a new coronavirus in Wuhan. One way to think about this is to adopt a … Read More
Diagnosis – the key to a sharp strategy
If you want a sharp strategy, you must diagnose your current situation well. The best strategies I see are the ones that are elegant in their diagnosis of their current situation. Without a shared, tight, description of the challenges and opportunities you are facing, you will founder in trying to work out what to do. This term – diagnosis – comes … Read More
The “Now Hear This” Podcast Festival in LA
This is a jet-lagged post from the LAX American Airlines lounge waiting for a flight to Dallas. (Every Aussie frequent flyer should fly domestic in the US once in a while to realise how great we have it back home). Yesterday I spent my lay-over at the “Now Hear This” podcast festival in Anaheim. I got to see two of … Read More
The “centaur approach” to technology
I’ve been thinking a lot about technology lately and how it’s going to impact humans at work. One client of mine is undertaking a strategic look at the future of work (and wondering about the future effects of AI on people and work); at the same time I’m preparing for a workshop in Palo Alto with a tech company that works … Read More
Podcasting the US election
Everyone thought Serial was going to change podcasting forever. I wonder whether actually it will be the 2016 US election. Unlike any other political campaign in the past, most of my news on the US presidential race is coming from podcasts. There are six key podcasts I follow for US politics right now: 538 Elections – Nate Silver’s data journalism … Read More
Quick post – The irony of Trump being undone by video
It’s been a while since I posted last – principally because I’ve been on holidays (Texas, DC and New York) – and then settling back in. But it’s time to start posting regularly again. I was going to post on how the way we consume media has continued to evolve, but the irony of Trump’s self-immolation is too attractive to … Read More
Netflix vs Blockbuster and the comforting narrative we tell ourselves
I was working with the board and senior management of a radio station last Friday on their strategy. The inevitable topic of digital disruption came up. It’s clear radio is going to look very different over the next decade, but the question no one can answer is what will it look like and when? Of course there are some principles … Read More
Kitty Genovese and the 38 silent witnesses – the power of a narrative to incorrectly shape half a century of research
Last week Winston Moseley, convicted of the 1964 murder of Kitty Genovese, died in prison at the age of 81. In the words of Kitty Genovese’s brother, Moseley’s death marks “maybe, the final chapter in the tragic story of the events of the early morning of Friday, March 13, 1964”. If you’ve done any study in the social sciences, it’s odds … Read More
Want your team to think together well? Get the “forum” right
The idea of choosing the right “forum” to make your speech the best it can be is as old as the Greeks and Romans. But I would contend that getting the right “forum” is also vital if you want your team’s conversation (and therefore thinking) to be the best it can be. The “forum” is an idea from the ancient art of … Read More
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