Survivorship bias – lessons from World War Two aircraft

Nick IngramThinking5 Comments

I don’t know about you, but I spent quite a bit of my Easter fighting in 1940 Western Europe. My teenage daughter, Zoe, playing the Axis powers, made quick work of France. England was standing alone as the German navy massed in the channel. But, even as all seemed lost, and Operation Sealion was underway, the Royal Airforce swung into … Read More

Is Donald Trump a living example of the Dunning Kruger effect?

Nick IngramThinking13 Comments

Dunning Kruger Effect

Did you see the David Brooks’ op-ed piece in the New York Times over the weekend? Brooks is a conservative columnist, but that didn’t mean he was going to hold back on Donald Trump. He is withering: “Donald Trump is epically unprepared to be president. He has no realistic policies, no advisers, no capacity to learn. His vast narcissism makes … Read More