Why do we fall for the Monty Hall problem?

Nick IngramThinking2 Comments

After posting on the Monty Hall problem ten days ago, I’ve done a bit more reading. Mainly because you guys seemed so interested in it! (It’s been surprising how much traffic that post got.) Anyway, as I’ve been reading it’s become increasingly clear that the Monty Hall problem is a classic in both statistics and psychology. Why is it a … Read More

The future – how can we think about it effectively?

Nick IngramThinking2 Comments

These days itĀ seems like a lot of my clients are thinking about what the future will bring. “Disruption” of industries is a big theme: along with the effects of global warming; and the rise of machine intelligence. It’s got me thinking – how can we think about the future effectively. Or is it entirely a mug’s game? Here is a … Read More

Faced with a hard choice? Try doing nothing…

Nick IngramThinking4 Comments

An “old hand” fund manager once described the essence of his job to me…. “The most important part of my job is helping my team to feel comfortable to do nothing.” In short, his job boiled down to stopping most of the trades his team wanted to make. In his view, the best approach to investing was to take a … Read More